How to Bet on Penalties: Penalty Awarded, Scored or Missed, Shootouts and To Qualify Markets Explained for Nigerian Punters

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · By the BetNaijaHub Editorial Team

My brother, few things in football raise your heartbeat like a penalty. One kick, one keeper, twelve yards, and the whole viewing centre goes quiet. Bookmakers know this, so they offer a full menu of penalty markets: will a penalty be given, will it be scored, who wins the shootout, which team goes through. This guide on how to bet on penalties explains each market in plain language, shows you how they settle, and gives you a simple way to check whether a price makes sense before you put your naira down.

18+ only. Since the Supreme Court judgment of 22 November 2024, gambling in Nigeria is regulated at state level (for example by LSLGA in Lagos), while the NLRC still covers the FCT. Cloudbet, which we link for crypto sports betting, is licensed in Curaçao and is not licensed by any Nigerian state regulator. Every price, percentage and stake on this page is an illustrative example, not a live price or a tip.

The main penalty markets at a glance

Penalty betting is not one market. It is a family of markets that settle on very different things. Mixing them up is the number one reason punters lose slips they thought they had won. Here is the map:

Before you place anything, open the market rules on your betting site and confirm the window. Two markets with similar names on two different sites can settle differently.

Penalty awarded in the match

This is the most popular penalty market in Nigeria because you can play it in almost any league match. You simply pick yes or no. A typical illustrative board looks like this:

Notice the margin: 108.2% is much higher than the 103–105% you often see on a 1X2 market. Specials like this usually carry a bigger bookmaker cut, so you need a clearer edge before betting. To remove the margin, divide each implied probability by 1.082. The book's "fair" view of yes is then about 28.9%, which is a fair price near 3.46.

How often are penalties given? It depends on the league, the season and how VAR is used, but in many top leagues the rate is somewhere around one match in four to one match in three. Do not memorise a number from a forum. Look at the actual penalties per match for that competition this season and last season, then adjust for the two teams.

What moves the chance of a penalty

• Attacking style. Teams that dribble into the box and carry the ball close to goal win more penalties than teams that shoot from distance or cross from deep.
• Defensive style. Defenders who dive into tackles or defend with their arms out concede more. Slow centre-backs facing quick wingers are a classic warning sign.
• The referee. Some referees point to the spot more than others. One season of data is noisy, so use two or three seasons where you can.
• VAR. Leagues with video review tend to catch more handballs and holds in the box. NPFL matches and some lower leagues may have no VAR at all, which changes the picture.
• Game state. A team chasing the game pushes more players into the box late on, which creates more chances for contact.

A simple worked example

Say the league average this season is 0.30 penalties per match. The home team wins penalties 20% more often than average and the away defence concedes them 10% more often. A quick estimate of the expected number of penalties is 0.30 × 1.20 × 1.10 ≈ 0.40. Using a basic Poisson model, the chance of at least one penalty is 1 − e^−0.40 ≈ 33%.

At 3.20, a ₦1,000 stake on yes has an expected value of 0.33 × 2,200 − 0.67 × 1,000 = +₦56. If your estimate were 28%, the same bet would be −₦104. That swing shows how sensitive these markets are. Small errors in your estimate turn a "value" bet into a losing one, so keep stakes small. Our odds calculator helps you turn odds into probabilities quickly.

Penalty scored or missed

Here you bet on what happens if a penalty is given. Conversion rates for spot kicks in top men's football are usually quoted somewhere around three in four, so a "scored" price is normally short and a "missed" price is long. Read the rules carefully because sites handle the no-penalty case in different ways:

• Some sites void the bet if no penalty is awarded, so you get your stake back.
• Some settle "missed" or "no penalty scored" as a winner if no penalty is given at all.
• Some only consider the first penalty of the match and ignore any later ones.

A penalty that is saved, hits the post or goes wide counts as missed. A penalty that is saved but then scored from the rebound usually counts as missed in the penalty market, even though the goal stands in the match. Retaken kicks follow the final outcome after the retake. Always check these details before you bet, because they decide close cases.

The taker matters more than the team

If you are betting on whether a penalty is scored, look at who takes them. A regular taker with a long record is more reliable than a stand-in. When the usual taker is injured, rested or suspended, the price may not fully reflect the drop in quality. Late team news is your friend here, which is why many experienced punters wait for the confirmed lineup.

Match decided by penalties

This market only exists for knockout ties: cup matches, playoff games, AFCON knockouts, World Cup knockouts and similar. You are betting that the tie stays level after 90 minutes and after extra time where extra time is played. Two things must happen, so think of it in two steps:

1. The chance the match is level after normal time. In tight knockout games this is often in the region of one in four to one in three.
2. The chance it then stays level through extra time. Many extra-time periods are cagey, but goals do come, especially from tired defences.

Illustration: if you rate the 90-minute draw at 28% and the chance of no winner in extra time at 55%, then the chance of a shootout is about 0.28 × 0.55 ≈ 15.4%, a fair price near 6.50. If a site offers 5.00, you are being underpaid. If it offers 7.50 and you trust your numbers, there may be a small edge.

Note that some competitions skip extra time and go straight to penalties after 90 minutes. Two-legged ties are judged on the aggregate score. Check the competition format before you price anything.

Shootout winner

Once a shootout is confirmed, many sites open a market on who wins it. Shootouts are closer to a coin flip than most fans want to believe. Better teams do win slightly more often, and some research suggests the team kicking first may have a small edge, but the effect is modest and debated. The keeper, the takers left on the pitch and the nerves of the moment all matter.

A sensible rule: if the shootout winner market prices one side at 1.50 (about 67%), ask yourself whether you truly believe that team wins two out of three shootouts. Very few teams deserve that confidence. Prices close to evens are normally more honest.

How a shootout works

• Each team takes five kicks, alternating. If one side cannot catch up, the shootout ends early.
• If it is level after five each, it goes to sudden death, one kick each until one scores and the other misses.
• Only players on the pitch at the end of the match can take part, so late substitutions of specialist takers or keepers can matter.

To qualify vs 90-minute markets: the classic trap

Every knockout season, people in Nigeria lose slips because they backed the right team in the wrong market. Imagine you bet on a team in the 1X2 market and they win on penalties. In the 1X2 market, the bet settles on 90 minutes, so the result is a draw and your bet loses. If you had picked "to qualify" instead, you would have won.

To qualify prices are shorter than 1X2 prices for the same team because they include extra time and the shootout. Neither is better. They answer different questions. Pick the one that matches your view. If you want more on removing the draw, read our draw no bet guide.

Shootout correct score

This is the high-odds corner of penalty betting. You pick the exact shootout score, such as 4-2 or 5-4. Because there are many possible results, prices are long and the margin is usually big. Treat these as small-stake fun bets, not a strategy. A few points help:

• Scores like 4-3 and 5-4 tend to be among the more common results, because most kicks are scored and shootouts often run to the last kicks.
• Sudden-death scores like 7-6 are possible but rare.
• Low scores like 2-0 or 3-1 require several misses in a row and are less common.

If you play this market, spread a very small amount across two or three likely scores rather than throwing a big stake at one.

Live penalty betting

In-play penalty markets can be interesting, but they move fast. When a dangerous attack is underway, many sites suspend the market. After a VAR check starts, the market is usually closed. You will rarely beat the bookmaker by reacting to something you see on screen, because your stream is delayed by several seconds compared with the stadium.

Where live betting can help is game state. A team trailing by one goal with fifteen minutes left will throw men forward, which can push the chance of a late penalty up a little. Some sites update "penalty awarded" prices slowly, so watch the odds as the match changes. Our guide to live betting with crypto covers the delay problem in more detail.

Penalties in NPFL and African football

If you follow the NPFL, remember that conditions differ from the big European leagues. Pitches vary, VAR is not used in every match, and data on referees and takers can be thin. Bookmakers also have less information, which can mean wider margins and softer prices at the same time. Build a small record yourself: note which teams win and concede penalties and which referees give them. Our NPFL live betting tips explain how to work with limited data.

For AFCON and World Cup knockout games involving the Super Eagles, the shootout question comes up often. Keep your fan heart out of it. A shootout is volatile for everyone, no matter how strong the squad looks on paper.

A step-by-step routine before a penalty bet

1. Pick the right market. Decide whether you are betting on a penalty being given, scored, a shootout happening, or a team going through.
2. Read the rules. Settlement window, no-penalty case, first penalty only, rebounds, retakes.
3. Make your own estimate. Use league averages, team tendencies, referee data and team news.
4. Remove the margin. Convert the odds to probabilities and strip out the bookmaker's cut.
5. Compare. Only bet when your estimate is clearly above the fair price, not just a little.
6. Stake small. These are high-variance markets. One to two percent of your betting bank is plenty.
7. Record the result. Over time you will learn whether your estimates are any good.

Staking for high-variance markets

Penalty bets lose more often than they win when you play "yes" at long odds. That is normal, and you need a bank that can survive a cold run. Here is an illustration with a ₦50,000 betting bank:

At odds of 3.20 and a true chance of 33%, a run of ten losses in a row happens about 1.8% of the time, so roughly once every 55 sequences of ten bets. Over a full season, cold streaks like that will happen. Small stakes keep you in the game.

Putting penalties in accumulators

Many Nigerian punters like to add "penalty awarded: yes" to a long accumulator for a bigger payout. Be careful. Each leg multiplies the bookmaker's margin, and penalty specials already carry a fat margin. Three penalty legs at 3.20 each pay about 32.8, but if each is truly 30%, the combined chance is only 2.7%, a fair price of about 37. You are being underpaid on every slip. If you love accas, read our 2 odds strategy guide and use the accumulator calculator to see the real numbers.

Common mistakes with penalty bets

• Betting 1X2 when you mean "to qualify". The most expensive mix-up in knockout football.
• Ignoring the no-penalty rule. A "missed" bet may win, lose or be void when no penalty is given. Know which.
• Chasing after a VAR call. A decision went against you, so you double up on the next match. That is emotion, not analysis.
• Trusting one season of referee data. Small samples lie. Use more history where possible.
• Overpricing your favourite in shootouts. Shootouts are close to fifty-fifty more often than fans think.
• Forgetting about the taker. A missing regular taker can change a "scored" price more than the team news headline suggests.

Related reading

For other goal-based markets, see our guide on how to bet on goals, and for player markets read how to bet on player shots on target. If handicaps confuse you, start with handicap betting explained.

Know your limits

Penalty markets are exciting because they are quick and dramatic, and that is exactly why they can pull you into chasing. If you are betting money meant for rent, school fees or food, or if betting no longer feels like fun, stop and talk to someone. Gamble Alert offers free, confidential support in Nigeria on +234 916 295 7989, or toll-free on +234 705 889 0073 and +234 705 889 0074. Read our responsible gambling page and check whether online betting is legal in Nigeria in your state.

Bottom line

Learning how to bet on penalties is mostly about reading the rules and choosing the right market. Know whether your bet settles on 90 minutes, the whole tie or the shootout only. Build your own estimate from league data, referees and takers, strip out the margin, and only bet when the gap is clear. Keep stakes small because these markets swing hard. 18+ only. Cloudbet is licensed in Curaçao and is not licensed by any Nigerian state regulator. Only stake what you can afford to lose.